The major expected reductions in Li-ion battery costs will arise from generational improvements
In combination, the regulatory battery changes from Brussels and Washington DC have fundamentally altered market dynamics in the HEV sector and increased the critical importance of five facts.
Li-ion Compaq Presario V3000 Battery cannot become commercially viable without a massive government funded effort to advance the state of the art in battery manufacturing and Li-ion chemistry through two generations over the next decade; The activity we’ve seen over the last few years is a good start, but only a start on the work that must be done; The major expected reductions in Li-ion battery costs will arise from generational improvements in manufacturing processes and battery chemistry, rather than simple economies of scale associated with scaling-up current technology.
The end result is an untenable situation where proven NiMH HP DV2000 Battery won’t be available in adequate volumes during the regulatory compliance period and even unproven Li-ion batteries will be subject to daunting supply constraints. In a nutshell, supply constraints will leave the booming HEV markets in a critical state of flux for several years.
The market has not yet come to grips with the inescapable conclusion that the lion’s share of the revenue gains from the HEV revolution will flow to companies like Johnson Controls (JCI), Enersys (ENS), Exide (XIDE) and C&D Technologies (CHP) that have substantial existing manufacturing capacity in both Europe and the U.S., and from technology driven newcomers like Axion Power International (AXPW.OB) that can rapidly and inexpensively expand their production capacity to satisfy soaring demand from the Toshiba PA3384U-1BRS Battery market. The window of opportunity is closing rapidly.
Final comment: If the auto industry suddenly goes, say, 100 percent electric, what happens to auto dealers’ oil-change business? Will the service advisor say, “Would you like a quick recharge of your battery, sir?”
Those comparisons are inherently unreasonable because they use the best examples of their technology and the worst examples of lead-acid technology. When the best NiMH and Li-ion battery technologies are compared with the best lead-acid technologies, the cycle-life advantages disappear.
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